No More Jersey Shore

The announcement that this was "Jersey shore's" last year on the air was greeted with glee in some quarters. My rabbi, for example, gave the news a big thumbs up. The antics of America's favorite group of guidos and guidettes have been evidence exhibit number one that the coarsening of American life has gone as far as it can go. MTV's decision to cancel the show is seen as proof that America has come to its senses. Both observations are obviously wrong. If the history of television has taught us anything, it's that networks and producers are always pushing the envelope in every conceivable direction to increase ratings. Some time soon, a show will air that will make "Jersey Shore" look like "Leave it to Beaver." We have not seen the last of the cast either -- I'm sure MTV has spinoffs planned with every single cast member. Snooki, the Situation, and J-Wow will be with us as long as networks believe people will watch their shows. MTV executives confirmed my suspicion that budget was one of the factors behind their decision when they specifically said budget was not a factor in their decision. Understand that budget is always a factor for media companies -- that's why they keep airing reality shows, because they are generally less expensive than scripted shows, and the ratings are comparable. But a hit reality show like Jersey Shore is an exception. The cast made money similar to actors in scripted shows. With the show in its sixth season the production company almost certainly got a big bump. So MTV execs were faced with a familiar situation: The show cost a lot of money, but its ratings were declining. Should they continue for another year or two, or cut their losses and use the news that this is the last season to maximize the ratings for the season? Clearly, they decided to cut their losses. The statement that MTV just felt that it was time for the network to move on is self serving and I don't agree. No network drops a hit show unless they think the show is no longer profitable. It's a problem we should all have -- if you're a program producer you hope you have a hit show. If you can sustain the show for six years like Jersey Shore you should be happy. If you want to sustain it for longer, do your best to keep the costs under control and do everything you can to make each season seem fresh. Eventually, no matter how hard you try, your show will be cancelled. That's why I said almost from the beginning of this blog, make sure you're working on several projects at the same time. Once you've had a hit show, you'll find most media companies very eager to hear your next idea.

Sometimes Less is Less

I couldn't wait another year to find out what happened in the third series of Game of Thrones. I went back to the original source and read the third book in the series, Storm of Swords. George R.R. Martin's book is over 1,000 pages long in paperback. I read it all as fast as I could to find out what happened. All of the books in the series have been long. They have to be to cover the sprawling story set mainly in the land of Westeros, covering many different stories and characters. I devoured every page, and when I got to the end I wanted more. That's the mark of a great story teller working with a great story. In general, publishers, producers, and even poetry editors prefer shorter pieces. They don't cost as much to publish or produce. They also believe that the audience's attention span shrinks every year, and in order to find an audience their content must be shorter. In some cases, telling more details can make your story better. The books in the Game of Thrones series proves that's not the case (I know the overall series is called, "A Song of Fire and Ice" I just call it "Game of Thrones" because I first came to it through the HBO series, not the novels). In the right hands a long story can be even more commercially successful than a short story. It's a truism that less is more. Even if that's generally true, it's not true all the time. Sometimes, less isn't more, less is less -- making a story shorter can sometimes lose its heart. How do you know? Trust your instinct. You've spent more time with the material than anyone else. What do you think? Ask the opinion of one or two trusted readers (or viewers if it's a video). Are there parts of the story they think you should cut? If you think your story works better at length, keep it. Don't cut just because someone said "less is more." Should you make cuts if your publisher or producer requests it? I'll address that in a future post.

Screenplays

Screenwriters make a lot of money. According to the current Writer's Guild agreement, the minimum for an original screenplay for a high end theatrical film is $122,000. Of course, that's the minimum. An established screenwriter, or a hot script from a newcomer, can net an author much, much more. $1 million for a screenplay used to be news; it's not any more. Screenplays are short -- one rule of thumb allows one minute of screen time for each page, so a two hour movie can be told in only 120 pages. And those pages aren't covered with dense prose. There's lots of white space for dialogue and shot descriptions such as "Int. Joe's shack on the St. John's River. Evening" that don't appear to take a great deal of creative brain space. So screenplays are short and pay a lot of money. Why aren't more people writing them? Actually, there are a lot of people writing screenplays -- but most of them aren't making money. I've read some estimates that only 5% of the Writer's Guild members can support themselves on screenplays. Most of them have to work other jobs to live. That's not unusal for performing unions. The vast majority of members of the Screen Actor's Guild, Actor's Equity, the Dramatist's Guild, etc,. don't make their living from their art. So if you want to make a living writing screenplays, what should you do? First -- move to Los Angeles. That's still the center of the film industry. Make connections with production executives, directors, agents, actors and other players in the film industry. I'm assuming you don't have other connections in the business. The most important thing is to make connections and find an agent, so that the screenplays you write will be read. You can't do that sitting at home. You might protest that William Goldman, who is one of my writing heroes, didn't move to LA. He got all his screenwriting jobs while living in New York. That is correct. But Goldman was already a successful novelist and Broadway script doctor before he sold his first screenplay. He had an agent. If you're a successful novelist, get your agent to sell your book to a studio with the stipulation that you write the screenplay. For the rest of us, making the right connections remain the key. If you can't move to Los Angeles, then at least get an agent who will represent your work in LA. How do you get an agent? See my previous posts. But essentially, it will help immensely to get a connection to an agent and not submit blindly. They receive a lot of material, and a recommendation from a connection will help get your script to the top of their pile. There's another option: Make the movie yourself. That approach worked wonderfully for "Paranormal Activity" and "The Blair Witch Project." It has never been cheaper or easier to make a quality film. If you don't know how, partner with someone from your local film school or production company. You can even distribute the movie on the internet. You may lose money on this first effort. However, you will show the worlde that you can write a screenplay and make a movie. Assuming the movie is good, you'll have an easier time making the next one.

Words from Michael Jordan

The Olympics are over. Most people in TV and film are taking vacation before the fall season starts. Fall films, full of adult situations and deep meanings will start airing in September, after studios clear out the last of their action films, like The Expendables 2. Now is a good time for you to assess your projects. Are they ready to pitch? What work remains to be done? Have you set aside time in your day devoted to creating content so you can continually improve your work? There are four and a half months left before the end of the year. Plan to finish a project a month until the end of the year, and you'll have four projects to pitch starting in January. You may not do everything perfectly the first time. No one does. Keep going. To encourage you I leave you with some words from Michael Jordan, two time Olympic gold medal winner and still considered by many to be the greatest basketball player in history: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” - Michael Jordan, gold medalist in basketball in 1992 and 1984

Content worth $1 billion

As they say in the movie "The Social Network,"$1 million isn't cool. $1 billion is cool." NBC announced before the Olympics began that they sold $1 billion worth of advertising for their Olympic coverage but they expected to lose $150 million because of the cost of coverage. Today, they said higher than expected ratings (20% more than the Beijing Olympics)means they will probably break even. Would you like your content to be worth $1 billion? What if you had to spend $1 billion to get the value from it? So if you have to spend $1 billion and not make any money on the Olympics, why televise them? As a network programmer, I can tell you that if NBC breaks even on the Olympics they're getting a great deal. Olympic ratings for the NBC network are in the 20s -- far above NBC's regular prime time ratings. Ratings jumps on CNBC, MSNBC, and the NBC Sports network provide a promotional and advertising platform that will drive business to these networks for the rest of the year. The Olympics are an unparalled opportunity to promote network programs. How many times have you seen Mathew Perry's face during commercial breaks? How much money would it cost NBC to get that many eyeballs if they didn't have the Olympics on? NBC is a billion dollar media company, owned by a cable company worth multi-billions. It makes sense for them to spend $1 billion to own the airwaves for two weeks. But you don't have to be a big media company to create content worth $1 billion. When JK Rowling was on the dole in England, wheeling the pram with her baby to the coffee shop so she could write the first Harry Potter book, she probably didn't think it would be a $1 billion idea. Yet it was. The difference is that the Olympics are an established property -- the multiple story lines, the world class athletes, heir 100 year history, ratings success -- all make them worth the money. It makes sense for media companies to pay $1 billion for it in rights and production. But JK Rowling's story shows that you can create your own $1 billion content, if you have the right idea and execute it properly. So keep working. Even if your idea isn't worth $1 billion, you can make a good living on $1 million.

What Will They Remember You For?

You spend a lot of time creating your content. It takes days, hours, weeks, and in some cases years of thinking, creating, and editing to make something worth other people's time. It may take only a few hours to write a poem or a short story. It can take years to finish a novel, or polish a screenplay to become a 'go' project. Which of your projects will people remember? You may be surprised at what resonates with the audience. Shakespeare spent a great deal of time and money preparing his sonnets for publication. He didn't bother to do that with his plays. After his death, the actors in his company published the quartos and first folio. If Shakespeare didn't know for which writing he would be most remembered, don't assume you know. I own a 580 page book of Robert Frost's complete poems. How many can you name? "Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening," and "The Road Not Taken" are still studied in grade school, but those are two out of hundreds of poems. Mathew Arnold was a famous critic during the 1800s who wrote many critical essays and poems. We remember him, if at all, for one poem, "Dover Beach." It's sobering to realize that even if our work is popular now, its popularity may not last. The point is that we don't know which of our works people will remember. If we're lucky, we'll have enough fans so that we can support ourselves through our work. There are no guarantees that our work will find an audience. I can guarantee that no one will remember the work you don't create. And since you don't know which of your pieces will outlast you, it's important to do your best on every one. Keep creating, and your legacy will take care of itself.

An $18 million part-time job

American Idol announced Mariah Carey will be a judge this season, replacing either Steven Tyler or Jennifer Lopez, both of whom decided not to return for the fall. Ms. Carey will reportedly receive $18 million for her first year on Idol; not a bad salary for a part-time gig. The arms race for pop icons on talent competition shows continues. Yet while they are willing to pay Mariah Carey the highest judge salary on television, they are also mandating layoffs on the production staff and looking for ways to cut costs. Rumors are that the third judge will be someone priced much lower than Mariah Carey -- perhaps runner up Adam Lambert. American Idol was still the highest rated non-sports series on television last year. Why is the show acting like it's in tremendous trouble? In a word -- money. The overall audience for the show dropped significantly last year, and as a result so did ad revenue. The program still brings in over $700 million in ad revenue to Fox, but it also costs a lot. Competition from other singing programs like "The Voice" are cutting into its audience. So if they want a big-name star to bring attention to the show, the money has to come from somewhere. If I was the show runner, I would first be looking for judges who can contribute to the show, regardless of how big a pop star they used to be. American Idol still hasn't replaced Simon Cowell, the judge we hated but respected, because he told singers when they weren't good enough. We didn't always agree with Simon, but everyone wanted to know what he had to say. That's the quality American Idol needs to find in their judges. If Mariah Carey can deliver the type of sound bites live that will help the contestants and entertain the viewers, she's worth every dollar Fox spends on her. If she can't, she'll soon follow Steven Tyler, Jennifer Lopez, Ellen DeGeneres, and the other judges that "decided" to leave the show. As a fan of the show, I hope that whoever the third judge is, can bring back some of Simon's acid judgements. After all, when American Idol started, most viewers didn't know who Randy Jackson, Simon Cowell, and Ryan Seacrest were -- and Paula Abdul hadn't had a hit in years. They helped make the show a success, but the show's success also made them. The lesson for us as content creators is that stars can draw attention to your show or movie. But if the content doesn't work, it doesn't matter who's in it -- the audience won't watch. Content remains king.