Idol Rumors

The X Factor added Demi Lovato and Britney Spears as judges this fall, to ratchet up audience enthusiasm and increase ratings. The producers also want their star power to fight NBC's hit show, The Voice. Meanwhile, as of this writing Mariah Carey remains the only judge signed for American Idol in the spring. Rumors are flying that Randy Jackson, the only remaining judge from the original group, will be forced into a mentor role so Idol to sign big name judges to compete in the musical competition show arms race. Why did X Factor sign Britney Spears and Demi Lovato? The answer is not because they wanted pop stars who could truly judge whether or not the acts will become stars. The answer is demographics. If you were a young Britney Spears fan in the late 1990s or early 2000s you are now probably in your mid-twenties, an audience demographic networks crave. Fox is hoping that the kids who loved Britney will watch X factor. If they do, Simon Cowell will reach the 20 million audience goal he set for himself last year. American Idol aims at a slightly older crowd, so they're hoping Mariah Carey's fans in the early 90s will watch her on Fox. There are rumors Idol's producers are negotiating with Enrique Iglesias and a male country star to round out the demographics for the audience. I think it will be a mistake if Idol hires stars without regard for how they will interact with each other, the contestants, and the audience. I hope they're testing the potential judges in front of a camera before signing them. After all, Randy and Simon were unknown to the American audience when Idol started. Paula Abdul was the biggest star, and she hadn't had a hit in years. Let me give Idol creator Simon Fuller, and all of my readers, some advice. Television makes its own stars. I recommend he sign someone like former Idol contestant Adam Lambert (another rumor) who can identify with the contestants. Adam will bring his outrageous personality to judging like he did to his performances. Of course you have to keep Mariah Carey in her $18 million part time job at this point. But let the audience discover that they like the other judges after watching them. That will result in higher ratings. I would keep Randy. We've grown used to him in our living rooms -- there's a comfort factor to television that drives repeat viewing. Two new judges -- whoever they are -- will be enough for us. People love to discover new talent. Remember, television makes its own stars.

The Surprise #1 Rated Network

The last week of August is traditionally a slow time for broadcast viewers. The week of August 27, 2012 to September 2, 2012 was no exception. There were news events: The Republican Convention and Hurricane Isaac. But there were almost no new programs on broadcast networks. So which network delivered the most viewers from the highly coveted Adults 18-49 and 18-34? The answer: Univision. That's right, the Spanish-language network was #1 and it wasn't even close in those categories. Univision delivered 17% more audience than its nearest rival, ABC. It's ironic that while the Republican Party scheduled speeches from several Hispanic politicians in an attempt to woo the Latino vote, they might have been better off buying ads during Univision's most popular telenovelas: Por Ella Soy Eva (For Her I'm Eva) and Amor Bravo (Fierce Love). This won't last, of course. Football starts this week, and the fall television season soon after that. But, as I've said in other posts, this is a revolutionary development in American broadcast. A niche channel with a large, dedicated audience, like Univision, can outdraw the general entertainment channels. What's true for Spanish-language television may also be true for your niche content. Does this mean we should all learn Spanish and make telenovelas? No, although it never hurts to learn a second language. If we all made telenovelas the competition would drive the price down. However, it does demonstrate that popular success can come from unexpected areas. Aiming your content at a dedicated niche audience may lead to more popular success in the long run than trying to create content that's all things to all people. There are many different routes to become #1. Find the one that works best for you.

No More Jersey Shore

The announcement that this was "Jersey shore's" last year on the air was greeted with glee in some quarters. My rabbi, for example, gave the news a big thumbs up. The antics of America's favorite group of guidos and guidettes have been evidence exhibit number one that the coarsening of American life has gone as far as it can go. MTV's decision to cancel the show is seen as proof that America has come to its senses. Both observations are obviously wrong. If the history of television has taught us anything, it's that networks and producers are always pushing the envelope in every conceivable direction to increase ratings. Some time soon, a show will air that will make "Jersey Shore" look like "Leave it to Beaver." We have not seen the last of the cast either -- I'm sure MTV has spinoffs planned with every single cast member. Snooki, the Situation, and J-Wow will be with us as long as networks believe people will watch their shows. MTV executives confirmed my suspicion that budget was one of the factors behind their decision when they specifically said budget was not a factor in their decision. Understand that budget is always a factor for media companies -- that's why they keep airing reality shows, because they are generally less expensive than scripted shows, and the ratings are comparable. But a hit reality show like Jersey Shore is an exception. The cast made money similar to actors in scripted shows. With the show in its sixth season the production company almost certainly got a big bump. So MTV execs were faced with a familiar situation: The show cost a lot of money, but its ratings were declining. Should they continue for another year or two, or cut their losses and use the news that this is the last season to maximize the ratings for the season? Clearly, they decided to cut their losses. The statement that MTV just felt that it was time for the network to move on is self serving and I don't agree. No network drops a hit show unless they think the show is no longer profitable. It's a problem we should all have -- if you're a program producer you hope you have a hit show. If you can sustain the show for six years like Jersey Shore you should be happy. If you want to sustain it for longer, do your best to keep the costs under control and do everything you can to make each season seem fresh. Eventually, no matter how hard you try, your show will be cancelled. That's why I said almost from the beginning of this blog, make sure you're working on several projects at the same time. Once you've had a hit show, you'll find most media companies very eager to hear your next idea.

Sometimes Less is Less

I couldn't wait another year to find out what happened in the third series of Game of Thrones. I went back to the original source and read the third book in the series, Storm of Swords. George R.R. Martin's book is over 1,000 pages long in paperback. I read it all as fast as I could to find out what happened. All of the books in the series have been long. They have to be to cover the sprawling story set mainly in the land of Westeros, covering many different stories and characters. I devoured every page, and when I got to the end I wanted more. That's the mark of a great story teller working with a great story. In general, publishers, producers, and even poetry editors prefer shorter pieces. They don't cost as much to publish or produce. They also believe that the audience's attention span shrinks every year, and in order to find an audience their content must be shorter. In some cases, telling more details can make your story better. The books in the Game of Thrones series proves that's not the case (I know the overall series is called, "A Song of Fire and Ice" I just call it "Game of Thrones" because I first came to it through the HBO series, not the novels). In the right hands a long story can be even more commercially successful than a short story. It's a truism that less is more. Even if that's generally true, it's not true all the time. Sometimes, less isn't more, less is less -- making a story shorter can sometimes lose its heart. How do you know? Trust your instinct. You've spent more time with the material than anyone else. What do you think? Ask the opinion of one or two trusted readers (or viewers if it's a video). Are there parts of the story they think you should cut? If you think your story works better at length, keep it. Don't cut just because someone said "less is more." Should you make cuts if your publisher or producer requests it? I'll address that in a future post.

Screenplays

Screenwriters make a lot of money. According to the current Writer's Guild agreement, the minimum for an original screenplay for a high end theatrical film is $122,000. Of course, that's the minimum. An established screenwriter, or a hot script from a newcomer, can net an author much, much more. $1 million for a screenplay used to be news; it's not any more. Screenplays are short -- one rule of thumb allows one minute of screen time for each page, so a two hour movie can be told in only 120 pages. And those pages aren't covered with dense prose. There's lots of white space for dialogue and shot descriptions such as "Int. Joe's shack on the St. John's River. Evening" that don't appear to take a great deal of creative brain space. So screenplays are short and pay a lot of money. Why aren't more people writing them? Actually, there are a lot of people writing screenplays -- but most of them aren't making money. I've read some estimates that only 5% of the Writer's Guild members can support themselves on screenplays. Most of them have to work other jobs to live. That's not unusal for performing unions. The vast majority of members of the Screen Actor's Guild, Actor's Equity, the Dramatist's Guild, etc,. don't make their living from their art. So if you want to make a living writing screenplays, what should you do? First -- move to Los Angeles. That's still the center of the film industry. Make connections with production executives, directors, agents, actors and other players in the film industry. I'm assuming you don't have other connections in the business. The most important thing is to make connections and find an agent, so that the screenplays you write will be read. You can't do that sitting at home. You might protest that William Goldman, who is one of my writing heroes, didn't move to LA. He got all his screenwriting jobs while living in New York. That is correct. But Goldman was already a successful novelist and Broadway script doctor before he sold his first screenplay. He had an agent. If you're a successful novelist, get your agent to sell your book to a studio with the stipulation that you write the screenplay. For the rest of us, making the right connections remain the key. If you can't move to Los Angeles, then at least get an agent who will represent your work in LA. How do you get an agent? See my previous posts. But essentially, it will help immensely to get a connection to an agent and not submit blindly. They receive a lot of material, and a recommendation from a connection will help get your script to the top of their pile. There's another option: Make the movie yourself. That approach worked wonderfully for "Paranormal Activity" and "The Blair Witch Project." It has never been cheaper or easier to make a quality film. If you don't know how, partner with someone from your local film school or production company. You can even distribute the movie on the internet. You may lose money on this first effort. However, you will show the worlde that you can write a screenplay and make a movie. Assuming the movie is good, you'll have an easier time making the next one.

Words from Michael Jordan

The Olympics are over. Most people in TV and film are taking vacation before the fall season starts. Fall films, full of adult situations and deep meanings will start airing in September, after studios clear out the last of their action films, like The Expendables 2. Now is a good time for you to assess your projects. Are they ready to pitch? What work remains to be done? Have you set aside time in your day devoted to creating content so you can continually improve your work? There are four and a half months left before the end of the year. Plan to finish a project a month until the end of the year, and you'll have four projects to pitch starting in January. You may not do everything perfectly the first time. No one does. Keep going. To encourage you I leave you with some words from Michael Jordan, two time Olympic gold medal winner and still considered by many to be the greatest basketball player in history: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” - Michael Jordan, gold medalist in basketball in 1992 and 1984

Content worth $1 billion

As they say in the movie "The Social Network,"$1 million isn't cool. $1 billion is cool." NBC announced before the Olympics began that they sold $1 billion worth of advertising for their Olympic coverage but they expected to lose $150 million because of the cost of coverage. Today, they said higher than expected ratings (20% more than the Beijing Olympics)means they will probably break even. Would you like your content to be worth $1 billion? What if you had to spend $1 billion to get the value from it? So if you have to spend $1 billion and not make any money on the Olympics, why televise them? As a network programmer, I can tell you that if NBC breaks even on the Olympics they're getting a great deal. Olympic ratings for the NBC network are in the 20s -- far above NBC's regular prime time ratings. Ratings jumps on CNBC, MSNBC, and the NBC Sports network provide a promotional and advertising platform that will drive business to these networks for the rest of the year. The Olympics are an unparalled opportunity to promote network programs. How many times have you seen Mathew Perry's face during commercial breaks? How much money would it cost NBC to get that many eyeballs if they didn't have the Olympics on? NBC is a billion dollar media company, owned by a cable company worth multi-billions. It makes sense for them to spend $1 billion to own the airwaves for two weeks. But you don't have to be a big media company to create content worth $1 billion. When JK Rowling was on the dole in England, wheeling the pram with her baby to the coffee shop so she could write the first Harry Potter book, she probably didn't think it would be a $1 billion idea. Yet it was. The difference is that the Olympics are an established property -- the multiple story lines, the world class athletes, heir 100 year history, ratings success -- all make them worth the money. It makes sense for media companies to pay $1 billion for it in rights and production. But JK Rowling's story shows that you can create your own $1 billion content, if you have the right idea and execute it properly. So keep working. Even if your idea isn't worth $1 billion, you can make a good living on $1 million.