American Idol Wins Night with Lowest Debut Ratings

American Idol has become completely predictable. We know in the first shows we're going to see some inspirational stories, some good singing, some horrible singing, along with screaming, cursing, and disappointment from the many contestants. I know fans of the show who won't watch the auditions anymore because they know what's going to happen. As a result, the show's debut last week won its night with the lowest debut ratings in its history. What can we learn from that? Predictability in popular art can be good for your audience. For example, successful detective series like Robert Parker's Spenser series and Janet Evanovich's Stephanie Plum novels feature lead and supporting characters the readers come to know and love. The authors keep the books interesting by varying the mysteries their characters solve and the characters they meet each book. Similarly, a good reality show like American Idol benefits from the predictability of its formula, as long as it can vary it enough each season with compelling competitors. The only question about the shows was how the new judges would work out. If you've seen the shows or read the coverage you know that Nicky Minaj became the star of the panel - dominating the dialogue with the characters, initiating catty fights with Mariah Carey, and dressing to impress or shock the audience. However, if people are tuning in just to see conflict between the judges, American Idol is on its way out. It's the contestants who need to be the stars -- something that the producers appeared to have lost sight of in the last couple of years. People don't turn into football games to hear Phil Simms or Howie Long, or any of the other analysts. Yes, their analysis helps the viewer enjoy the games, but the players and the teams are the attraction. If the show producers really are relying on their judges for compelling storylines, this could well be the last season of American Idol. If you're creating a series of books, television shows, or movies, make sure you create a basic formula that allows for variations on the theme. And remember, it's the characters we care about, and keep them compelling. Also remember my first poetry book, "Two Car Garage" is now available at amazon.com and bn.com