Is Hollywood Losing America?

The 2014 summer box office returns have disappointed Hollywood studios, particularly when compared with 2013. As of the last full week in July, box office grosses in 2014 are down 20% from summer of 2013. But while some of the hoped-for blockbusters didn't perform as expected, there are also many fewer big flops. There hasn't been a flop like "John Carter" or "The Lone Ranger." What is the reason for this, and what can we, as content creators, learn from it? One reason for the box office slump often cited by critics and industry insiders is that the current crop of movies stink. When "Transformers 4" is one of the top performing films, you know that in-depth characters are not a priority this summer. Poor marketing also is mentioned. The dystopian movie "Snowpiercer" received very favorable reviews and did well at the box office, but the film's distributor, the Weinstein company, released it to video on demand before allowing the word of mouth to build. The film is doing very well as a VOD title, but it's not contributing to the box office total. It's very difficult, if not impossible,to predict how an audience will respond to a movie two or three years in the future. Yet, that's when Hollywood makes its movie bets. Executives listen to a pitch, commission a script, and give those lucky few projects green lights. The films don't premiere until a year or two, or sometimes longer, after they are a "go" project. That's why concepts that are popular when a film goes into production may feel old by the time they open. Next summer, when a new Avengers movie and other tent pole films are scheduled to open, major Hollywood studios may have a great summer. They also may not be so quick to send sleeper hits to video on demand after this year. Since you can't predict audience taste in the future, don't worry about it when you're creating your content. Your job as a creator is to make the truest, most unique film you can. Audiences respond to authenticity, and they want to be thrilled by something they didn't expect. One of the challenges I had with last year's "Lone Ranger" movie, was that, after I got over Johnny Depp's odd look and manner, the film delivered everything I expected to see and nothing else. Please tell your unique stories with as much imagination as you can muster. That's how you capture an audience. Is Hollywood losing America? They've lost some of their audience this summer, but all it will take is a couple of blockbusters, or a director and star with a unique vision, to get the audience back. This weekend's "Guardians of the Galaxy" looks to be a big hit. That's good for me -- I still own the 1969 comic book. However, if you define Hollywood as more than just movies, and include television and online offerings, Hollywood is having a pretty good year. While movie box office is down, viewing of online series -- everything from "House of Cards" and "Orange is the New Black" to experimental you tube series, is way up. Many of those series are created by traditional Hollywood talent. I don't think Hollywood is losing America; I think Hollywood is learning to find audiences in places other than movie theaters. Think about that when you're creating your content.

"The Butler" outgrosses "Lone Ranger"

As of September 8, 2013, the Disney film "The Lone Ranger's" domestic box office gross stood at $88,806,000. That's a tremendous disappointment for a film that reportedly cost $250 million to make. As of Sept. 8, after only four weeks of release, "Lee Daniel's The Butler" grossed $91,901,000. The reviews and word of mouth on the movie have been so good that it's sure to increase its lead over The Lone Ranger, and many other summer box office failures. The budget for The Butler is estimated to be $30 million, making it tremendously profitable. What happened? The obvious answer is that audiences liked The Butler and didn't like The Lone Ranger. In my July post 'A $250 million Flop" I outlined some of the more obvious mistakes Disney and its creators made with the Lone Ranger. Lee Daniels, producer and director of The Butler, made right decisions, starting with casting Forrest Whitaker and Oprah Winfrey, who the audience loved and could play those parts believably. The Butler also opened up a world for audiences that most of us do not know -- behind the scenes of the White House. It constantly surprised us in a way that draws people into a story -- we thought we knew the history, but The Butler showed us a side we didn't know. The Lone Ranger had no surprises -- we may not have known the specific stunts going in, but we knew everything that was going to happen. The Butler's success also proves two other things: 1. $30 million dollar films can still make money, if they are well made and reach the right audience. 2. We'll soon see several movies dealing with African-American history -- the upcoming "!2 Years a Slave" is just one example. Does the success of The Butler and failure of The Lone Ranger mean studios will change the way they do business? I'm sorry to say no. It's true The Lone Ranger's budget would fund 8 movies like the Butler. But personal, quality films like the Butler bring their own challenges. You need to have a quality script. You need stars willing to work for less than they usually make because they believe in the project. It's not easy to make high-quality, intelligent, films that reach a wide audience. Finally, Studio executives don't get jobs because they make $30 million movies; they get jobs because they've supervised $100 and $200 million movies. If you greenlight a bunch of $30 million movies and they fail, not only did your films fail, you couldn't attract big budget elements. When The Lone Ranger fails, at least you've shown your ability to bring name talent to your studio. The business isn't set up to nurture inexpensive or even reasonably priced films. For content creators, the lesson of "Lee Daniels the Butler" is that there is a market for quality stories that inspire people. We never really know what stories will capture the audience's interest. Keep working to make your stories, films, poems, and web series the best you can, and let your audience find you.